Derek Sivers, ex-of CD Baby, is a kind of hero. He built a hugely successful web platform that helps independent musicians distribute their music. CDBaby has put some $85 million into the hands of indie musicians. Here he talks about the “future of the music business,” with an artist and business man’s approach to music that’s not unlike Warren Buffett’s view of the stock market. No on knows whether it’s going to go up or down tomorrow, or next week or next month. But if you focus on the fundamentals – quality companies, or making good songs – the rest will follow:
Every time I speak on a panel, the moderator has to ask, “What’s the future of the music business?”
My first thought is always, “Nobody knows. Anyone who pretends to know is not to be trusted.” (And, even the ultimate insiders, the heads of every major record label, got it wrong.)
But then my thoughts turn to whoever is asking the question.
Why should it matter what anyone says?
Realistically, what would you change about what you’re doing, day-to-day?
And so it comes back to fundamentals.
Just like we know there will be gravity, and water will still be wet, there are laws that don’t depend on predicting the future.
- You know that people love a memorable melody.
- You can’t know what instrumentation or production-values will be in vogue.
- You know that people prefer people who make an emotional connection with them.
- You can’t know what technology will carry that communication.
- You know that writing lots of songs increases your chances of writing a hit.
- You can’t know which song will be a hit.
So the best thing to do instead of predicting the future is to focus on the fundamentals that never fluctuate. [more...]
The same can be said, with a bit of rejigging (sentences for melodies, chapters or stories for songs, etc.) for the writing business, the writing craft, the writing art. Do the fundamentals well, and the rest, maybe, will follow.
